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Tipping points are additional sources of global warming that add to the global warming already being done by carbon dioxide.
An example tipping point is North Pole sea ice, pictured below. It is one to two meters thick and when it melts, sunlight is absorbed by sea water instead of being reflected by sea ice. As a result, this causes the planet’s temperature to increase.
There is approximately five million square kilometers of sea ice around the North Pole. This size is illustrated below for reference.
If this were to melt, average global temperature would increase 0.6 degrees Celsius and this would add to the 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming already incurred by 150 years of carbon dioxide and methane emissions. In other words, global warming would accelerate due to this tipping point, and other factors.
By MRPeasy 05.01.2024
By Global Unichip Corp. 04.18.2024
Another tipping point example is thawing permafrost. It releases methane, a greenhouse gas, which also causes the planet’s temperature to increase. Unfortunately, additional heat would cause more permafrost to melt in a self-reinforcing cycle.
Tipping points are like dominos
There are approximately a dozen tipping points, as illustrated below.
Each tipping point increases global temperature and can therefore be thought of as an additional source of global warming. Also, each tipping point is activated (i.e. “tipped”) by more warming. In other words, they can activate each other, and are therefore like dominos.
One of the first dominos is North Pole sea ice. After this melts, the artic region will become warmer, and this will cause snow and ice on Greenland to melt. Unfortunately, this will dump fresh water into the Atlantic Ocean, which will reduce ocean currents (i.e. AMOC reduction). These currents move heat from one region to another, and a loss of this heat flux would lead to less moisture in soil, which would lead to less food production.
When and to what extent?
To get a sense of what is expected to happen when, and to what extent, one needs to consult a climate model. To add to the confusion, there are many models and they do not always agree.
There are generally two types of models. The “traditional” type is more accepted, yet does not explain recent observations (i.e. global warming rate, air temperatures, ocean temperatures, etc.). Alternatively, the “newer” type is less accepted, yet is better at explaining observations. These two types will probably converge within several years, since the traditional models are increasingly under pressure to explain observations.
The newer type predicts the following will occur over the next 30 years:
- Collapse of Atlantic Ocean currents
- Collapse of Amazon rainforest
- Land suitable for growing corn and wheat worldwide to decrease two-fold due to less moisture in soil
In other words, newer climate models predict significant changes will occur over the next 30 years due to tipping points. And they believe a rapid reduction in carbon dioxide emissions will not fix this. We seem to be tipping too fast.
The mother of all tipping points
Dr. James Hansen, a top climate scientist, considers the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) to be the “mother of all tipping points.” This will increase the sea level by five meters over a relatively short period of time and have a significant impact on coastlines.
It is not clear when this will occur. However, according to Hansen, we can expect multiple meters of sea level rise between 2050 and 2150.
What to do?
The climate problem might seem overwhelming. However, it can be resolved with minimal disruption, which we explain in the following EE Times articles:
